15 March 2024
Today’s Bitcoin price movement is a confluence of factors including massive liquidations, macroeconomic pressures, and the impact of negative Coinbase Premium alongside Bitcoin ETF dynamics. These elements combined have led to a noticeable dip in Bitcoin’s price.
#1 Long Liquidations
Today’s Bitcoin market saw a significant price drop, initiated by a sweeping liquidation event on the futures market. Over the last 24 hours, crypto trader liquidations exceeded $682.54 million across more than 191,000 traders, according to Coinglass data.
This surge in liquidations resulted in Bitcoin’s price plummeting by 8% in mere hours, falling from $72,000 to $66,500. Although there was a minor recovery, with Bitcoin’s price rebounding to the $68,000 level, it currently stands nearly 10% below its March 14 all-time high of $73,737.
A notable 80% of these liquidations were long positions, contributing to $544.99 million of the total. Short position liquidations made up the remaining $136.94 million, with Bitcoin longs alone accounting for $242.37 million in liquidations.
#2 Macro Conditions Weighing On Bitcoin Price
The macroeconomic landscape has placed additional pressure on Bitcoin’s value. Ted, a macro analyst known as @tedtalksmacro, highlighted on X the influence of macro conditions on the cryptocurrency market.
He stated, “If BTC is digital gold, expect it to trade in lockstep with gold, however, with higher beta.” With the Federal Reserve’s meeting looming next week, macroeconomic factors are expected to take center stage temporarily.
Yesterday’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, showing a 0.6% increase in February and surpassing forecasts of 0.3 month-over-month, has caused a ripple effect with CPI recently also hotter than expected, leading to a rise in US bond yields. The benchmark 10-year rate saw an increase of 10 basis points to 4.29%, while two-year rates rose to 4.69% from 4.63%. These developments have led traders to adjust their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies in 2024.
Mohamed A. El-Erian, from Queens’ College, Cambridge University, Allianz, and Gramercy, remarked on the situation: “US government bond yields jumped today in reaction to yet another (slightly) hotter-than-expected inflation print (this time PPI).” This suggests a growing awareness of the challenges that persistent inflation poses to achieving the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
#3 Negative Coinbase Premium / Quiet Bitcoin ETF Day
The decline of Bitcoin below the $70,000 threshold is also attributed to the “Coinbase Premium” – the exchange which custodies the majority of all spot Bitcoin ETFs – dipping into negative territory for the first time since February 26, indicating a bearish sentiment from US markets. This phenomenon is likely a consequence of significant sales of Grayscale GBTC, while the spot ETF experienced relatively calm activity.
Following a record $1 billion net inflow day for the spot ETF on March 12, inflows dropped to just $132.7 million recently, with Blackrock contributing the lion’s share at $345.4 million. Meanwhile, Fidelity and ARK saw minimal inflows of $13.7 million and $3.5 million respectively, after a previously strong week. GBTC outflows were reported at $257.1 million, aligning with average levels.
Crypto analyst WhalePanda commented on the situation, noting that despite the reduced inflow, “$132.7 million is still 2 full days of mining rewards.” He suggests a potential rebound in the market, stating, “We’re just ranging now and overleveraged people getting margin called. I guess the next move up is for next week.”
At press time, BTC traded at $67,916.