29 October 2024
As Bitcoin rebounds from its brief correction and approaches the $70,000 mark, Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at asset manager and crypto ETF issuer VanEck, shared his insights on the cryptocurrency’s potential trajectory in light of the upcoming US presidential election and broader economic factors in a recent CNBC interview.
Bitcoin Recovery Tied To M2 Growth And Seller Exhaustion
Sigel noted the correlation between former President Donald Trump’s lead in betting polls against Vice President Kamala Harris and Bitcoin’s rise. He characterized Trump as the most pro-crypto candidate, suggesting that his policies may favor the cryptocurrency market.
Conversely, Sigel expressed skepticism about Harris’s understanding of Bitcoin, indicating that her administration may not prioritize cryptocurrency issues.
Delving deeper into Bitcoin’s price dynamics, Sigel highlighted several critical correlations. He pointed out a negative correlation with the US dollar and a positive correlation with the global money supply growth, known as M2, leading to the current uptrend.
Sigel also attributed the recent price recovery to the Federal Reserve’s pivot towards reacceleration of M2 growth, alongside what he described as a current “seller exhaustion” in the BTC market.
Additionally, Sigel identified a promising bullish setup for Bitcoin as the election approaches, particularly its rising correlation with the Nasdaq, reaching a two-year high of 1.5.
Sigel recalled a similar pattern from the 2020 elections, where Bitcoin exhibited low volatility until the election outcome was announced, leading to a substantial rally as new buyers flooded the market. “New buyers are born every day,” he emphasized, indicating a steady influx of interest in Bitcoin.
When discussing Bitcoin’s relationship with gold and M2, Sigel described Bitcoin as a “chameleon,” highlighting its dynamic correlations that can shift over time. This variability makes it challenging to accurately predict Bitcoin’s short- and long-term behaviors.
$180,000 Post-Election, $3 Million By 2050
In addition to US political dynamics, Sigel pointed to recent activities within the BRICS intergovernmental organization, particularly the involvement of new members Argentina, the UAE, and Ethiopia in Bitcoin mining.
The researcher noted that these countries are leveraging government resources to mine Bitcoin to counter what he termed the “irresponsible” fiscal policies of the US.
Sigel also mentioned Russia’s plans for its sovereign wealth fund to invest in Bitcoin mining through BRICS, proposing settling global trade in Bitcoin.
When asked about potential future price points for BTC, Sigel explained that historical rallies have seen increases of around 2,000%. If Bitcoin were to achieve half of that rise post-election, it could reach approximately $180,000.
Looking further ahead, Sigel referenced a model from VanEck’s digital asset research team, predicting that by 2050, Bitcoin could serve as a reserve asset for global trade, held by central banks at a rate of 2%. This model suggests a staggering $3 million per Bitcoin price by that year.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $68,900, up 1.7% over the past 24 hours.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com