17 June 2024
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, has predicted that the blockchain Aptos (APT) is poised to surpass Solana (SOL) in prominence and utility in the race for the second largest Layer 1 (L1) blockchain behind Ethereum within the next two to three years. Hayes conveyed his thoughts during a detailed interview with macro analyst Raoul Pal.
Aptos Could Overtake Solana
Hayes indicated that the potential for Aptos to outperform Solana and ascend as the second-ranking L1 protocol after Ethereum is significant, but did not delve into the specific catalysts behind his assertion during the conversation. He promised a more detailed exposition of his views in September.
The emergence of Solana in March 2020 marked a significant milestone in the blockchain landscape. Solana was heralded as a solution to several limitations of Ethereum, particularly concerning scalability, speed, and cost-efficiency. These attributes were crucial as the Ethereum network grappled with severe congestion issues during the DeFi boom, prompting the search for viable alternatives.
Solana’s ascent in the crypto hierarchy was notably accelerated with the launch of the memecoins BONK in December 2022 and dogwifhat (WIF) in November 2023, both pivotal moments that marked the first major departure of memecoin activities from Ethereum’s ecosystem. Both memecoins not only boosted Solana’s visibility but also attracted an array of memecoins and innovative DeFi platforms, drawn by lower transaction costs.
However, similar to Ethereum, Solana faced its own challenges at the beginning of the year with network congestion as its popularity surged, demonstrating the persistent scalability issues within current blockchain infrastructures.
Aptos, on the other hand, has maintained a record of zero downtime since its inception, positioning it as a robust and reliable alternative within the digital currency ecosystem. Its foundation rests on the novel smart contract programming language “Move,” developed by engineers formerly associated with Meta Platforms Inc.’s Diem project.
Although Diem was ultimately shelved, the expertise and technological advancements have been redirected into Aptos, emphasizing its suitability for commercial use and potential for widespread adoption. However, Aptos has not yet been widely adapted. The blockchain currently has neither a popular DeFi ecosystem nor any major memecoins.
APT Price Analysis
This is reflected in Aptos’s market performance. Currently, Aptos (APT) has retreated 63% from its January 2023 high of $20.39, trading at $7.50 after experiencing a significant downtrend from its March peak of $19.48. The decline has taken APT below the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $8.39.
The cryptocurrency’s trajectory has also seen it falter below the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), now at $9.25, which has emerged as a major resistance level. APT has faced multiple rejections at this threshold, underscoring its importance for any potential reversal to bullish momentum. Moreover, maintaining a position above the year’s lowest price of $7.39 is critical to stave off further losses.