2 October 2025
Solana (SOL) shook off a swift sell-off to $205 on Tuesday, rebounding above $209–$216 as institutional-sized wallets scooped the dip while over-levered retail longs were flushed. The slide coincided with U.S. shutdown jitters across risk assets, but crypto quickly mirrored equities’ intraday recovery.
Order-flow dashboards (anchored CVD in the $1M–$10M bucket) show pro buyers adding on weakness, while funding briefly flipped negative—an attractive setup that encouraged fresh longs in spot and perps.
Solana ETF Speculation Keeps Bulls Optimistic Ahead of October 10
The next major milestone for Solana is set to arrive on October 10, when the SEC is expected to decide on several spot Solana ETF applications. While reports suggest that regulators have asked some asset managers to withdraw filings tied to certain altcoins, analysts argue this is more of a procedural move than a rejection.
Many believe October, already being dubbed “Cointober”, could see multiple crypto ETFs advance, echoing the pattern that fueled Ethereum’s breakout earlier this year. This ongoing ETF narrative, combined with Solana’s swift recovery from volatility, has helped maintain strong bullish sentiment among traders and institutions alike.
On-Chain Tug-of-War: Veterans Take Profit, Newcomers Hold the Line
Under the surface, Solana’s holder base is divided. Liveliness has increased, suggesting long-term holders (LTHs) are gaining strength after a three-month upward trend.
At the same time, 1–3 month holders now control about 14.4% of the supply, the highest in five months, indicating growing short-term conviction. That “old guard vs. fresh capital” conflict has effectively kept the price above the rising trendline, even as profit-taking episodes occur.
Institutional flows remain the key factor. Talk among market participants about asset-manager positioning ahead of an ETF decision, combined with ongoing builder activity in Solana DeFi, supports steady medium-term demand. If Bitcoin dominance diminishes, high-beta L1s like SOL typically attract additional flows.
Will Solana Break $214 Resistance and Target $232?
Technically, SOL regained its weekly median range after the flash crash, indicating underlying strength. Immediate support is at $206; breaking below it could open the door to $200, weakening the three-month bullish trend.
On the upside, $214 and $221 are the near-term barriers; a close above both could lead to the $232 target flagged by multiple traders. Beyond that, the larger pattern resembles ETH’s pre-$4,000 breakout, with $270 serving as the next major resistance if momentum picks up before or after the ETF decision.
Cover image from ChatGPT, SOLUSD chart from Tradingview