29 September 2025
Solana is once again at a pivotal crossroads, with its price hovering around the 50-day EMA —a level that could dictate its next major move. A decisive break above $220 could ignite fresh bullish momentum, while failure to hold could open the door for a slide back toward $175.
SOL Tests 50-Day EMA As Market Watches Closely
Lark Davis, a widely followed crypto analyst on X, recently noted that Solana has returned to test its 50-day EMA. This moving average has historically provided both support and resistance for SOL, making the latest retest a key moment for traders watching the coin’s short-term direction.
In addition, Davis highlighted signs of improving momentum on the indicators. The MACD histograms are curving upward, hinting at a potential shift in momentum from bearish to bullish, while the RSI is slowly rising, suggesting that buying pressure may be building. These developments signal that Solana is preparing for a recovery phase if buyers step in with stronger conviction.
Despite these encouraging signals, Davis noted that trading volumes remain muted. Low volume often raises concerns about the strength behind a move, as rallies without significant participation can fade quickly.
What To Watch For As Solana Builds Strength
Analyzing the potential outlook for Solana, Lark Davis highlighted two distinct, high-stakes scenarios based on how the asset interacts with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This EMA acts as a pivotal line, and the price’s reaction here will determine the direction of the short-term trend.
The first potential outcome is that if the price is decisively rejected at the 50-day EMA, known as a bearish retest, it would signal weakness and likely lead to a move downward. In this case, the analyst targets the $175 support level as the expected floor. While he qualifies shorting as “nasty business,” he suggests it could be done in this specific situation.
The second outcome, which is a bullish scenario, requires a strong display of conviction from buyers. This involves a successful and robust reclaim of the 50-day EMA, specifically confirmed by today’s daily candle closing above $210. To further solidify this bullish case, the price ideally needs to push beyond the subsequent resistance at the 20-day EMA, which sits near $220.
Given the immediate threat and the potential for a swift upside move, the analyst suggests a high-risk, high-reward play. Initiating a long position from the current price, near $209, with a tight stop-loss might be a sensible strategy to catch the bullish scenario and capitalize on the quick momentum if the price successfully reclaims the 50-day EMA.