22 August 2024
Travis Kling, the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Ikigai Asset Management, is proposing a direct link between the US presidential election outcomes and the Bitcoin price. Via X, Kling delves into the political dynamics and their perceived implications for crypto markets, particularly focusing on the potential re-election of Donald Trump.
Why September 10 Could Be Crucial For Bitcoin
Kling’s analysis hinges on several key political events and their corresponding impacts on betting markets, which he believes are reflective of broader economic expectations. “NFA. I’m wrong often. Bitcoin has likely been trading with a correlation to Trump winning. And that makes sense to me. BTC/crypto will be MUCH better off under a Trump admin,” Kling stated.
He emphasized the Democratic National Convention’s perceived shortcomings and an expected endorsement of Trump by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as pivotal moments that could drive the Bitcoin price. “The DNC does not appear to be going particularly well. RFK is supposed to be endorsing Trump on Friday. These factors are showing up on Polymarket and if RFK goes for Trump, I would guess Poly would widen out further,” Kling noted. He anticipates these developments will peak on September 10.
This is when the first debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will be in Philadelphia. “It’s Trump’s to lose IMO. If he shows up for Kamala the way he showed up for Biden, polls/Poly should widen further still.”
Kling expects the Bitcoin price to surge towards $72,000. “Given that BTC is trading with Trump, it would make sense to me that all this would add up to BTC being back up to the top of this 6-month range,” Kling speculated.
However, he also warned of too much optimism. Kling is unsure if the BTC price can break out of the trading range established in mid-March “prior to the election, unless polls/Poly REALLY widen out for Trump. Hate it or love it, this election is highly consequential for us, short-term price action just being one aspect of that.”
Notably, not everyone is sharing Kling’s opinion. Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, provided a contrasting perspective. Sigel stated, “Bitcoin is Not Currently Trading With Trump Odds, Though I Expect That to Change.
FalconX, a prominent crypto prime broker, also recently conducted an analysis which scrutinized the correlation between Bitcoin prices and Trump’s electoral odds on Polymarket—a platform for betting on political outcomes. From June 1 to August 15, their findings indicated no apparent correlation, underscoring that other factors might have influenced Bitcoin’s price more significantly. These factors included the 50,000 BTC sell-off by the German government and liquidations by former customers of Mt. Gox.
Undoubtedly a coalition of Trump and Kennedy Jr.’s would be extremely bullish for Bitcoin. While it enhances Trump’s odds of winning the US election, another strong Bitcoin supporter would join the Trump campaign. Kennedy Jr., like Trump, has advocated for substantial government involvement in Bitcoin, proposing that the Treasury Department should purchase 550 Bitcoins daily until it amasses 4 million BTC in reserves.
At press time, BTC traded at $61,067.