19 March 2024
PlanB, a popular name within the Bitcoin community, thanks to his Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, has shared the latest discourse on X, igniting a flurry of excitement and speculation. This discourse particularly highlights BTC’s potential journey through successive halving cycles.
PlanB’s analysis, deeply rooted in the S2F model, presents a narrative for Bitcoin’s future. This model scrutinizes the correlation between an asset’s existing reserves (stock) and annual production (flow) and lays the groundwork for PlanB’s bold predictions.
Navigating Through Predictions: A Community Aweigh
According to the model, the forthcoming halving cycle spanning 2020-2024 is expected to solidify Bitcoin’s price at around $50,000. But the real spectacle unfolds in the ensuing cycles, with projections setting the stage for Bitcoin to ascend to $500,000 in the 2024-2028 cycle, eventually reaching a monumental $5 million in the 2028-2032 cycle.
Stock-to-Flow 2020-2024 halving cycle: ~$50k
Stock-to-Flow 2024-2028 halving cycle: ~$500k
Stock-to-Flow 2028-2032 halving cycle: ~$5m
Yes, S2F = exponential growth, and it will continue IMO. pic.twitter.com/rH1KmIyKSl
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) March 18, 2024
The predictions made by PlanB have sparked interest and debate among the crypto community. Many are curious to see if Bitcoin will experience the forecasted substantial growth.
An X user responded to PlanB’s post, expressing hopefulness yet advising caution due to the limited number of data points that can’t definitively predict precise future prices, like an average of $500k from 2024 to 2028.
PlanB acknowledged this caution, pointing out that his predictions are based on three past halving events and the significant pre-halving period, suggesting that while the Stock-to-Flow model can guide the general trend, its accuracy comes with a considerable margin of error.
For instance, while the 2020-2024 period was projected to see an average of $55k, the actual figure was around $33k.
Very true. Only 3 halvings (2012, 2016 and 2020) plus the crucial pre-halving period (where BTC S2F grew from below 1 to ~4). And S2F is only for general direction, of course, and with wide error margin (for example: prediction 2020-2024 was 55k but in reality ~33k).
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) March 18, 2024
Additionally, another user in the conversation, known as Phoenix of Crypto, remarked that while PlanB’s projection might seem “overly optimistic,” the true outcome remains to be seen, emphasizing the need for patience.
This user highlighted the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s future, especially considering the potential impacts of ETFs and widespread adoption, signaling an open-minded but watchful approach to market developments.
Bitcoin Latest Price Action
Bitcoin is undergoing a notable decline, having decreased by 7.5% over the last week. This downward trajectory has extended into the last 24 hours, with the cryptocurrency dropping an additional 1.5%. Despite these setbacks, Bitcoin’s trading price remains at $67,167 at the time of writing.
Skew, a renowned trader, has provided technical analysis indicating a critical support range for Bitcoin investors between $60,000 and $67,000.
This range is seen as a possible pivot point for the market’s direction, concurrently noting the substantial selling activity on leading platforms such as Coinbase and Binance.
$BTC Spot Market Data Thread, in partnership @_WOO_X $BTC Binance Spot
Weekend spot buyer here
Spot Supply ($72K – $74K)
Spot Demand ($60K)
Interestingly last bounce which was sold into also resulted in a stack of limit bids being quoted lower.
~ Keep an eye on those bids… pic.twitter.com/3PKHyddNlv
— Skew Δ (@52kskew) March 17, 2024
Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView