1 March 2024
Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, faces a potential downturn in its price following the anticipated halving event scheduled for April, according to analysts at JPMorgan led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.
This event occurs approximately every four years and is expected to slash miner rewards from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC. As a result, JPMorgan analysts have warned that the Bitcoin price could drop toward $42,000 post-halving.
Reason Behind The Potential Crash To $42,000
The analysts attribute this potential decline to the reduced profitability for miners and the subsequent increase in BTC production costs. The analysts disclosed that the Bitcoin production cost has historically served as a “lower bound” for its prices, with the estimated range doubling post-halving to around $53,000.
Nonetheless, a potential 20% reduction in the BTC network’s hashrate looms is primarily attributed to the departure of less efficient mining rigs from the operational landscape.
Consequently, this scenario may drive the estimated production cost range to $42,000, calculated under an average electricity cost of $0.05 per kilowatt-hour (kWh).
According to the analyst, Bitcoin miners with “below-average electricity costs” and “more efficient equipment” are expected to fare better following the halving event. In contrast, those with “higher production costs” may struggle to remain profitable.
Consequently, analysts anticipate an increased concentration within the Bitcoin mining industry, with publicly listed miners likely to hold a higher share.
Moreover, there is the prospect of “horizontal integration” via “mergers and acquisitions” among miners spanning different regions, aiming to leverage “synergies and minimize” collective operational expenses.
Bitcoin Market Sentiments And Potential Surge
Meanwhile, as JPMorgan analysts suggest a potential drop in Bitcoin’s price post-halving, Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise, remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term outlook. Horsley predicts that the cryptocurrency will surge to $250,000 sooner than anticipated.
Bitcoin is going to eat into gold’s TAM faster than people expect.
$250k Bitcoin could happen much sooner than most who’ve followed the space for years would imagine.
Why? For 15 years, Bitcoin proved it’s merits but was only accessible to some.
Bitcoin ETFs were Bitcoin’s…
— Hunter Horsley (@HHorsley) February 28, 2024
Meanwhile, many metrics within the BTC market signal a potential surge for Bitcoin. On-chain data reveals that the Bitcoin MVRV ratio has reached levels reminiscent of the parabolic bull run experienced in 2020, suggesting a forthcoming surge may be imminent.
MVRV hit 2.5, indicating a +150% average profit for all #Bitcoin wallets.
In Nov 2020, MVRV was 2.5 at $18K, preceding the all-time high and parabolic bull run.https://t.co/cx8nYhNeeI pic.twitter.com/PgRLietkkz
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) 2
Amid these varying forecasts and market sentiments, BTC trades at $63,391, marking a slight retracement from its recent peak above $64,000 – the highest level traded in the past two years.
Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView