3 June 2024
Crypto analyst TechDev (@TechDev_52) recently shared a detailed chart analysis suggesting that Bitcoin might be on the cusp of its most significant breakout to date. This analysis, backed by historical patterns and technical indicators, points to a potential shift in the market that could lead to unprecedented price levels for Bitcoin.
The chart provided by TechDev illustrates Bitcoin’s price action in USD alongside its price relative to the M1 money supply (BTC/M1). Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited distinct phases of parabolic price increases, known as “blowoff tops,” followed by sharp corrections. These blowoff tops are marked with green check marks on the chart, occurring in 2011, 2013, and 2017. Each of these peaks was followed by significant corrections.
Notably, the 2021 peak did not result in a blowoff top, as indicated by the red cross on the chart. This deviation from historical patterns is significant because it suggests a possible change in market behavior.
TechDev’s chart also highlights a key pattern known as the “descending right-angled broadening formation.” This technical pattern is characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows, creating a broadening wedge shape. The pattern typically signals a period of consolidation, where the price oscillates within the broadening trend lines before a decisive breakout. The chart shows that Bitcoin has recently broken out of this broadening wedge, indicating a potential shift from a consolidation phase to a new bullish trend.
The analyst commented, “Significant. Bitcoin has only seen blow-off tops after breakouts against M1 money supply. And the longer it’s consolidated, the longer it’s run. This breakout follows the longest consolidation yet. In fact, it represents a textbook breakout of a 5 year broadening wedge. The last 5 years have been corrective against M1. BTC is once again impulsive against it for the first time since 2017. We’ve never seen a Bitcoin breakout like this one.”
Bitcoin Could Outpace The 2021 Cycle
Another critical aspect of TechDev’s analysis is the breakout of Bitcoin against the M1 money supply. The M1 money supply includes physical currency and checkable deposits, representing the most liquid forms of money in the economy. TechDev points out that Bitcoin has broken out against M1 for the first time since March 2017. This breakout is particularly significant because it suggests that Bitcoin’s recent price increase is driven by intrinsic demand rather than merely an increase in the money supply.
TechDev comments on this breakout, stating: “You’re looking at the first breakout of Bitcoin against M1 money supply since March 2017 when it went historically parabolic for 9 months. Comparisons and trend projections involving 2021 may end up dramatically underestimating things. One interpretation: In 2021 BTC was carried to new USD highs by increased money supply. In 2024 it’s gotten there on its own demand (and thus broke out against M1). Add the anticipated M1 growth this time and we likely see BTC outpace expectations based in part on 2021.”
TechDev’s analysis underscores the importance of understanding Bitcoin’s performance relative to macroeconomic indicators like the M1 money supply. By breaking out against M1, Bitcoin demonstrates strong intrinsic demand, which is a bullish signal for future price movements. The historical patterns of blowoff tops following similar breakouts suggest that Bitcoin could be entering a new phase of price discovery, potentially leading to new all-time highs.
At press time, BTC traded at $69,032.