29 October 2024
As the US presidential election draws near, Bitcoin has briefly surged to the $70,000 mark for the first time in over five months. This milestone coincides with former President Donald Trump leading in polls against Vice President Kamala Harris, setting the stage for potential shifts in the cryptocurrency landscape depending on the election outcome.
$70,000 As Key Level For Bitcoin To Surpass March Record
The recent uptick in Bitcoin’s price has been bolstered by a rally in the stock market, with analysts noting that investors are increasingly pricing in a potential Trump victory.
Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG Australia Pty, indicated that Bitcoin needs to maintain a solid break past $70,000 to build confidence in surpassing its previous record of $73,798 set in March.
Trump has positioned himself as a pro-crypto candidate, pledging to make the US the cryptocurrency capital of the world. In contrast, Harris has taken a more cautious stance, advocating for a regulatory framework for the industry.
Amidst the political backdrop, options traders have ramped up their bets, with many speculating that Bitcoin could reach $80,000 by the end of November, irrespective of who wins the election.
Implied volatility around Election Day on November 5 has also risen, reflecting the uncertainty in the market. Notably, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have seen approximately $3.1 billion in net inflows this month, further contributing to the positive sentiment surrounding cryptocurrencies.
Regulatory Concerns Surround Harris’s Stance On Crypto
Crypto analyst VirtualBacon recently highlighted the significance of the upcoming election for the cryptocurrency market, dubbing it the “Crypto Election.”
Prediction markets currently favor Trump at 60%, although these figures may be skewed due to the crypto community’s historical support for him. National polls indicate a tighter race, with Harris holding a slight lead of just over 1%.
The crypto industry has contributed approximately $119 million to campaigns this election year, representing nearly half of all corporate donations.
However, major players like Coinbase and Ripple are strategically donating across party lines to promote supportive legislation rather than backing a single candidate.
While both Trump and Harris have publicly expressed favorable views on cryptocurrency, their commitments to concrete legislative action remain uncertain.
Harris’s regulatory approach raises concerns, as her campaign has emphasized protecting minority investors in digital assets without providing specifics.
Moreover, her tenure as Vice President coincided with the appointments of prominent crypto critics such as the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chair Gary Gensler, and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
On the other hand, Trump’s evolving views towards cryptocurrency, including the launch of a successful NFT project and a DeFi platform, suggest a warming to the industry.
As the election approaches, VirtualBacon suggests that it’s crucial to consider that economic data released post-election will significantly influence market sentiment.
The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in November could provide critical insights into inflation and liquidity, impacting both the broader market and the trajectory of cryptocurrencies.
BTC’s Path To $100,000
Despite the speculation surrounding the impact of the presidential election, which is just 7 days away, another analyst, Ali Martinez, noted that over the past eleven years, seven of them have seen massive gains for the market’s leading crypto.
As can be seen in the chart provided by Martinez, the average November gain for BTC is a massive 46%, which if the market follows these late patterns, could see a November price of just over $100,000 per coin.
However, for BTC to confirm a breakout to retest its all-time high, it will be key for it to consolidate above the $70,000 mark in the coming days ahead of the election, positioning it well for a dramatic breakout to even higher prices.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com