26 November 2024
In an interview with CNBC on Monday, Fred Thiel, CEO of Marathon Digital Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA), shared his bullish outlook on Bitcoin. He emphasized the growing institutional interest and a favorable regulatory environment that could propel the BTC price to new highs.
Thiel dismissed the impact of the recent Bitcoin halving, stating, “I think the halving had zero effect.” Instead, he attributed the Bitcoin price surge to the introduction of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) earlier this year. “In January, you had the ETFs that launched that drove all of a sudden the beginnings of some institutional interest,” he noted.
Institutions Just ‘Waiting To Buy Up’ Bitcoin
While the initial investments in these ETFs were predominantly retail, Thiel observed a shift as institutional players began entering the market. “Then you started seeing some pension funds starting to buy into ETFs and into Bitcoin-related equities like our stock or MicroStrategy‘s,” he added.
The CEO highlighted the potential impact of political developments on the BTC market. “With the election, you know, Donald Trump ran on a platform that is very pro-Bitcoin—Bitcoin strategic reserve, mining in the US, etc.,” Thiel said. He suggested that such a stance could lead to a more supportive regulatory environment in the United States.
“What that’s ended up driving is a huge belief that all of a sudden the regulatory environment for Bitcoin and crypto will get much better, that the US will double down and really invest in Bitcoin potentially,” he explained. This anticipated shift could pressure other nations to adopt similar policies, fostering global adoption.
Thiel also pointed out the robust market dynamics absorbing selling pressure from long-term holders. “Every single Bitcoin that had been purchased was in profit, and you started long-term holders who had held Bitcoin for years beginning to liquidate a little bit to take some profits,” he said. Despite this, he emphasized the market’s resilience: “There is so much demand in the market that it just keeps soaking it up.”
Addressing concerns about Bitcoin’s notorious volatility, Thiel asserted that significant drawdowns might be a thing of the past, at least in the near term. “The volatility of past years, where you would hit a peak and then see a 20% or 30% drawdown, I think are gone, at least for the near-term future,” he stated. He believes that institutional investors are poised to enter the market aggressively. “I think what we’re going to see is essentially institutions just waiting to buy up Bitcoin,” Thiel predicted.
He cited recent actions by major corporations to support his outlook. “You look at MicroStrategy—they’re [issuing a] $3 billion bond; they’re out there buying Bitcoin very aggressively,” he said. “We raised a $1 billion bond at 0% coupon the same week as Michael Saylor did, and we went out and acquired hundreds of millions of dollars of Bitcoin.” Thiel emphasized that this trend is gaining momentum: “Lots of people are starting to do this now.”
Concluding his insights, Thiel expressed confidence in Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. “Anybody who’s selling is selling into a market where there’s ample demand, and I think that for the foreseeable future we’ll continue to see Bitcoin price move up—you know, up and down, up and down—but generally the trend will be upwards,” he said.
Notably, Cantor Fitzgerald recently adjusted its price target for MARA from $33 to $42. The revision follows Mara Holdings’ completion of a substantial $1 billion convertible note offering last week. From the $980 million raised, Mara used $199 million to buy back $222 million in principal of its 2026 convertible notes. With $781 million in proceeds remaining, the company plans to purchase additional Bitcoin, leveraging a strategy similar to MicroStrategy (MSTR).
However, unlike MicroStrategy, which focuses purely on capital market maneuvers to accumulate Bitcoin, Mara also operates the largest publicly-traded Bitcoin mining operation by hash rate. Analysts at Cantor highlight this as a key differentiator with bullish potential.
At press time, BTC traded at $92,531.
