30 January 2026
Ethereum has slipped below the $2,800 level and is now struggling to hold the $2,700 area, extending a phase of price weakness amid fragile market conditions. Recent price action shows limited follow-through on rebounds. With sellers continuing to cap upside attempts as broader risk appetite remains uneven. While spot momentum has softened, on-chain data suggests a more nuanced picture beneath the surface.
The realized price of the ETH accumulation address continues to trend higher and is now approaching the current market price. This dynamic indicates that accumulation activity has not stalled despite the drawdown. In practice, a rising realized price reflects coins being acquired at progressively higher cost bases, signaling continued participation from long-term buyers rather than capitulation. Importantly, this realized price zone has historically acted as a strong support level for accumulation whales.
Notably, this price range has never been broken in prior tests. Each prior interaction with the realized price of the accumulation coincided with stabilization rather than an accelerated downside. Reinforcing its relevance as a structural reference. While this does not guarantee immediate upside or prevent short-term volatility, it provides context for the current consolidation near $2,700.
Whale Cost Basis Emerges as Key Support
A recent report from CryptoQuant explains that Ethereum has declined to around $2,682, a level that aligns closely with the realized price of the ETH accumulation address. This metric tracks the average cost basis of long-term accumulators. It provides a key reference point to assess where committed buyers stand.
Historically, the realized price of accumulation addresses has acted as a strong structural support, particularly during corrective phases. When market price converges toward this level, it often reflects a transition from speculative selling to absorption by longer-term holders. In the current context, this zone is actively providing support, with price stabilizing rather than accelerating lower despite broader market pressure.
CryptoQuant data also shows that whale accumulation remains active. Large holders continue to add ETH near these levels, suggesting confidence in this cost basis and reinforcing its role as a defended price zone. This behavior contrasts with distribution patterns typically seen near market tops, where realized prices flatten or decline as long-term holders reduce exposure.
As long as the accumulation cohort maintains its position and does not begin to distribute, the probability of sustained downside below this level remains limited. Strong whale buying anchors price action near $2,680, establishing a meaningful support zone even as short-term volatility persists.
Ethereum Tests Long-Term Demand
Ethereum’s price action continues to reflect a market under pressure. ETH is now trading around the $2,700–$2,750 zone after failing to hold above the $3,000 psychological level. The chart shows a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows since the November peak, confirming that the broader trend remains corrective rather than impulsive.
ETH is trading below its short- and medium-term moving averages. With the 50-day and 100-day averages acting as dynamic resistance on recent rebounds. The 200-day moving average, still trending higher above $3,500, highlights the loss of long-term momentum and reinforces the idea that the market has shifted into a consolidation-to-distribution phase rather than a continuation of the prior uptrend.
Importantly, the $2,700 area aligns closely, driven by panic selling but rather by a lack of aggressive follow-through under pressure since December, suggesting the presence of structurally committed buyers. Volume has declined during recent sell-offs. This indicates that downside moves are not being driven by panic selling, but rather by a lack of aggressive follow-through from buyers.
As long as ETH holds above the $2,650–$2,70signal a deeper retracement, whereasemain range-bound, with volatility compressing. A decisive breakdown below this zone would open the door to a deeper retracement, while stabilization here would support the case for base-building rather than trend continuation.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com