3 July 2024
Ethereum (ETH) price has encountered a setback after briefly surpassing the $3,500 mark on Monday, dropping once again to the $3,400 support level on Tuesday. The delay stems from the expected full approval by the SEC for Ethereum ETF applications, which have now been postponed to July 8.
SEC Requests Revised Filings
Analysts had initially anticipated approval by July 2, but the SEC has requested issuers to submit revised filings by July 8. Bloomberg ETF expert Erich Balchunas shared on social media that the SEC took additional time to provide feedback, resulting in a revised timeline. Balchunas stated:
Unfort think we gonna have to push back our over/under till after holiday. Sounds like SEC took extra time to get back to ppl this wk (altho again very light tweaks) and from what I hear next wk is dead bc holiday = July 8th the process resumes and soon after that they’ll launch
SEC Chair Gary Gensler previously indicated that Ethereum ETFs would likely receive approval by “the end of the summer.” The SEC is currently reviewing and approving the S-1 forms, which represent the second step in launching spot Ethereum ETFs.
Despite the delay, asset managers remain optimistic about the SEC greenlighting the first US spot Ethereum ETF applications that directly invest in Ether, with expectations set for mid-July. A recent Bloomberg report highlighted the constructive dialogue between asset managers and the regulator.
Ethereum ETF Launch Inches Closer
Per the report, the regulator’s feedback provided minor questions that issuers are currently addressing. In May, the SEC approved the proposal by exchanges to list these products, requiring a separate approval for their launch.
Steve Kurz, head of asset management at Galaxy Digital, predicted the approval of an Ethereum ETF within the next couple of weeks. Galaxy Digital has filed for an Ether ETF, and Kurz expressed confidence in the process, emphasizing their familiarity with the requirements based on their experience with the Bitcoin ETF.
Several prominent firms, including BlackRock Inc., Fidelity Investments, 21Shares, and Invesco, have filings awaiting approval. The disclosure of fees on the respective funds is a necessary step before trading commences.
Assuming the funds receive a green light, one key question remains: Will Ether portfolios generate a similar level of demand as the historic debut of US spot-Bitcoin ETFs in January, which accumulated $52 billion in assets?
$15 Billion In Inflows Within First 18 Months
As previously reported by NewsBTC, Ethereum ETFs may attract significant inflows in the first few months of trading, although they may not have the same volume of inflows as the newly approved Bitcoin ETF market.
In a note to investors Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer (CIO), Matt Hougan projected that these ETFs could see $15 billion in net inflows within their first 18 months of trading.
To arrive at this estimate, Hougan considered the market capitalizations of Bitcoin and Ethereum, expecting investors to allocate to their respective exchange-traded products (ETPs) proportionally.
Hougan pointed out that US investors have already invested $56 billion in Spot Bitcoin ETPs, and he anticipates this figure to reach $100 billion or more by the end of 2025.
Drawing from this reference, he determined that Spot Ethereum ETFs would need to attract $35 billion in assets to match the Bitcoin ETFs, a process that could take around 18 months.
Additionally, he noted that the Spot Ethereum ETFs would launch with $10 billion in assets, thanks to the conversion of the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) into an ETF.
At the time of writing, ETH is trading at $3,418, recording significant losses in the monthly time frame amounting to over 9%.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com