12 June 2024
In a recent social media post, renowned crypto analyst Michael Van de Poppe shared his predictions regarding the potential bottoming out of the altcoin market.
Van de Poppe emphasized the significance of key economic data and the upcoming interest rate decisions from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), highlighting their potential impact on the crypto market.
Altcoin Rally Ahead? CPI Data Points To Bullish Outlook
Consumer Price Index (CPI) data revealed that US inflation had fallen to 3.3%, lower than expectations, which he deemed bullish news for the altcoin market. The CPI data holds particular importance as it influences the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rate cuts.
Van de Poppe explained that if the CPI data came in above expectations, it would have led to a stronger US dollar and higher yields. In such a scenario, the chances of a near-term rate cut would have diminished, leading to a decline in risky assets. Conversely, a lower-than-expected CPI reading paves the way for a positive market reaction, as is the case today.
The FOMC’s interest rate decisions were identified as the second significant event of the day. Following the European Central Bank’s recent rate cut, there is speculation that the US might consider similar measures.
Van de Poppe emphasized the importance of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech, as it could provide valuable insights into future monetary policy, potentially influencing market sentiments.
Trading With Caution
The altcoin and crypto markets experienced notable corrections last week, led by Ethereum (ETH), the largest altcoin in the market, with a price drop of over 5%, with a historical negative correlation observed during FOMC meetings and CPI releases.
However, Van de Poppe suggested that a repricing upwards could be anticipated, potentially leading Bitcoin to approach its all-time high of $73,700 in the coming weeks if the FOMC adopts a dovish stance.
However, caution was advised, as price action can be deceptive. In the event of an unchanged rate decision, initial downward market responses might occur, with the true impact unfolding later.
Another market expert, Adrian Zduńczyk, offered his perspective, highlighting the tendency for prices to retrace to previous levels with little effect on volatility following FOMC decisions. While traders often anticipate news releases and follow patterns, he cautioned against trading against the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions.
As the altcoin market awaits the outcome of key economic data and FOMC decisions, analysts monitor these factors closely, anticipating a potential reversal and subsequent market upswing.
With the Ethereum ETF seeking trading in the coming weeks, the summer months promise renewed market momentum and a potential challenge to all-time highs.
ETH is currently trading at $3,618, experiencing a significant surge of 4.1% in the past few hours, coinciding with positive CPI data and heightened expectations of favorable news from the US Federal Reserve.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com