19 March 2025
The road ahead for Bitcoin looks promising. At least, this is the prediction of Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan.
According to the CIO, Bitcoin still has a big chance to hit $1 million by 2029 — despite its recent lackluster performance.
In a March 18 investor note, Hougan explained how Bitcoin responds to economic uncertainty.
Bitcoin’s Complex Relationship With Economic Trends
In his view, Hougan said Bitcoin doesn’t always function as the crisis hedge many buyers expect. The cryptocurrency sometimes moves in sync with the broader US stock market when major economic news breaks.
This pattern appears to be repeating as markets await the 2025 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting this month.
The Bitwise executive advises holding onto your crypto investment in spite of the current uncertainty. He cites past data that demonstrates Bitcoin price increases of more than 190% in the years after notable declines. This is what he labels as a “dip then rip” trend that may recur in the coming weeks or months.
Million-Dollar Price Target Based On Discount Analysis
Using the Discounted Cashflow Analysis (DCA), Hougan calculated that a $1 million BTC price in 2029 translates to a current value of $218,604 when applying a 50% discount factor. This projection supports Bitwise’s long-term forecast of up to $1.1 million per coin.
With a modest price movement, the cryptocurrency has traded lately between $81,180 and $84,340. Though obstacles still exist, other analysts such as Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood have foreseen a “deflationary boom” that would help Bitcoin reach its full potential.
US Government Involvement Could Shape Future Of Bitcoin
Reports suggest that possible US government actions could have a major effect on the long-term future of Bitcoin. The proposed creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve could indicate official acknowledgement of the relevance of the alpha coin.
Senator Cynthia Lummis, meanwhile, has reintroduced the Bitcoin Act Bill, a move that appears to be building institutional investor confidence. Regulatory changes affecting Bitcoin are also spreading to other digital assets, particularly stablecoins.
Macroeconomic Factors Influence Short-Term Price Action
The Bitwise CIO also pointed out links between the success of Bitcoin and the US tariff wars. The main reason for Bitcoin’s price changes, according to his analysis, is that it is not as liquid as standard markets.
In the short run, Hougan said that geopolitical tariff conflicts might make the market more liquid. If this trend keeps up, it could be good for Bitcoin because buyers are looking for safety from economic uncertainty.
Featured image from Gemini Imagen, chart from TradingView