4 October 2024
Bitcoin has been experiencing some interesting developments in its market indicators, and a recent analysis points to the NVT (Network Value to Transactions) Golden Cross signaling a potential short-term local top.
According to a CryptoQuant analyst known as Darkfost, the NVT Golden Cross—a key metric used to determine market valuation relative to transaction volume—has reached a major level.
Local Top Spotted, What Next?
The CryptoQuant analyst revealed that Bitcoin’s NVT Golden Cross has recently reached the 2.9 level, suggesting that the market cap, or price, of Bitcoin, may be outpacing its transaction volume.
Particularly, Darkfost explained that a value above 2.2 indicates the possibility of reversing the mean, suggesting that the current valuation could be overextended. On the other hand, a value below -1.6 would indicate that the market is potentially undervalued.
For context, the NVT Golden Cross compares the market cap of Bitcoin to the volume of transactions on its network, providing a measure of whether Bitcoin is being traded at a fair value. The signals become stronger when the metric moves deeper into its upper or lower zones.
At a current value of 2.9, the indication is that Bitcoin may face short-term price resistance, possibly pointing to a local top at around $65,800, Darkforst revealed.
The analyst adds that such levels can gauge potential long and short positions, especially when viewed alongside global chart trends and broader market behaviour.
Bitcoin On The Verge Of Major Correction?
While the NVT Golden Cross presents a perspective of potential market overvaluation, another CryptoQuant analyst, CryptoOnchain, offers additional insights by analyzing Bitcoin’s movement between exchanges. The recent data shows a significant outflow of Bitcoin from centralized exchanges.
This trend of Bitcoin being withdrawn from exchanges is seen across all three key moving averages: 30-day, 50-day, and 100-day. The analyst revealed that such an outflow hasn’t been observed at this scale since November 2022.
Notably, a decrease in Bitcoin held on exchanges can be interpreted in multiple ways. Firstly, it often suggests that investors move their assets to more secure storage, such as cold wallets, to hold rather than trade.
This behavior can signal confidence in the asset, as holders may expect its value to increase over time. With fewer BTC available on exchanges for immediate sale, the potential for downward price pressure may decrease, which could set the stage for a bullish momentum in the longer term.
However, it can also indicate that traders prepare to exit their positions, anticipating a correction if they foresee market instability or overvaluation.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView