19 November 2024
Bitcoin (BTC) continues its historic price trajectory, trading in the low $90,000 range at the time of writing. However, a trading firm suggests that Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) falling below a crucial level could signal the start of the long-anticipated altcoin season.
Interest Rate Cuts, Trump Administration To Propel Crypto
In a recent Telegram broadcast, Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital shared its crypto market analysis. The firm highlighted Solana’s (SOL) recent performance, noting that it outpaced Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) over the weekend, surging more than 17% from Friday’s lows.
Despite this, QCP Capital acknowledged that many investors remain hesitant to embrace the prospect of an imminent alt season, given Bitcoin’s steady climb toward the psychologically significant $100,000 mark. Rekt Capital’s analysis supports this sentiment, suggesting BTC is just beginning its parabolic phase.
QCP Capital, however, predicted that a combination of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) could set the stage for a full-blown altcoin season in the coming months.
Trading Firm Identifies Key Bitcoin Dominance Threshold For Altseason
According to QCP Capital, altcoins historically outperform major cryptocurrencies once the latter consolidate after significant rallies. The firm explained:
Historically, we’ve seen altcoins outperform whenever the majors consolidate after a significant rally as profits rotate into smaller-cap coins. BTC’s dominance is around 60% now and it will probably need to be around <58% to signal the start of altcoin season.
Currently, BTC.D stands at 60.10%. A look at the weekly chart shows that Bitcoin dominance has been on a steady uptrend since November 2022, when it hovered at 39.92%. Over this two-year period, most altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin significantly.
However, altcoins have recently shown signs of recovery, coinciding with the growing likelihood of a pro-crypto Trump administration. Digital assets like SOL, Cardano (ADA), and XRP have significantly outperformed BTC in the past few weeks.
QCP Capital’s analysis aligns with that of crypto analyst @MikybullCrypto, who predicts BTC.D will decline starting in December. According to the analyst, altseason could begin toward the end of November and last until March 2025.
Some analysts believe Bitcoin may continue its rally before showing signs of weakness. For instance, Fundstrat’s head of research, Tom Lee, recently stated that BTC is on track to reach $100,000 before the end of the year.
That said, the altcoin market cap recently surged past a key resistance level, indicating that altcoin season might be closer than expected. At press time, BTC trades at $91,760, trading flat in the past 24 hours.
