Bitcoin breaks $86K as US tariff 'Liberation Day' risks 11% BTC price dip

Bitcoin (BTC) reached new April highs at the April 2 Wall Street open as markets braced for US “Liberation Day.”

Bitcoin teases breakout in US tariff countdown

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed local highs of $86,444 on Bitstamp, the best performance for BTC/USD since March 28.

Volatility remained in the run-up to US President Donald Trump announcing a sweeping round of reciprocal trade tariffs.

The measures would be unveiled in an address from the White House Rose Garden at 4 pm Eastern Time, with Trump then holding a press conference.

While US stocks traded slightly down after the open, Bitcoin managed to claw back lost ground, acting in a key area of interest filled with long-term trend lines.

As Cointelegraph reported, these include various simple (SMA) and exponential (EMA) moving averages, among them the 200-day SMA — a classic bull market support line currently lost.  

In his latest observations, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital made additional reference to the 21-week and 50-week EMAs.

“The consolidation between the two Bull Market EMAs continues. However, the 21-week EMA (green) represents lower prices as it declines,” he wrote in a post on X alongside an illustrative chart.

“This week the green EMA represents $87650. The declining nature of this EMA will make it easier for $BTC to breakout.”

Rekt Capital flagged more bullish news in the making, thanks to BTC/USD attempting to break out of an extended downtrend on daily timeframes.

He confirmed:

“Bitcoin is one Daily Candle Close above & retest of the Downtrend away from breaking out into a new technical uptrend.”

Last month, Bitcoin’s daily relative strength index (RSI) metric broke free from its own downtrend that had been in place since November 2024.

Analysis warns $76,000 BTC price may return

Continuing on the macro picture, however, trading firm QCP Capital was uninspired.

Related: Bitcoin sales at $109K all-time high ‘significantly below’ cycle tops — Glassnode

Risk assets, it told Telegram channel subscribers on the day, were likely to “remain under pressure” following the tariffs announcement.

“In crypto, sentiment remains broadly subdued. BTC continues to trade without conviction, while ETH is holding the line at $1,800 support. Across the board, crypto markets are showing signs of exhaustion with numerous coins down 90% YTD, with some shedding over 30% in the past week,” it summarized. 

“Without a material shift in macro or a compelling catalyst, we don’t expect a meaningful reversal. While light positioning could support a grind higher, we’re not chasing any upside moves until the broader macro picture improves.”

Previous tariff moves in Q1 almost unanimously delivered downward BTC price reactions.

Other industry participants were more hopeful, including asset management firm Swissblock, which argued that “no sign of an imminent collapse” occurred on Bitcoin.

“Will $BTC hold as a hedge, or follow TradFi into a pullback?” it queried in an X thread on March 31, describing BTC price action as being “at a crossroads.”

Swissblock saw the potential for a return to $76,000 multimonth lows in the event of a negative reaction — a drop of 11% versus current levels.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.