6 September 2024
Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, today expressed a bleak outlook for the Bitcoin price’s immediate future. On his X profile, Hayes revealed his personal market maneuver, stating, “BTC is heavy, I’m gunning for sub $50k this weekend. I took a cheeky short. Pray for my soul, for I am a degen.”
Why Hayes Possibly Expects A Bitcoin Price Crash
While Hayes refrained from providing explicit reasons for his prediction, the timing of his statement closely aligns with significant US economic indicators set to be released this Friday. The US jobs data has been a critical factor for market analysts lately. The Kobeissi Letter analysts, commenting on the situation, noted the increasing influence of unemployment data on Federal Reserve policies.
They explained via X that, “Prediction markets are now pricing in 4 rate cuts in 2024, or 100 bps of cuts, for the first time since the August 5th crash, according to Kalshi. Over the last 2 days, prediction markets have priced-in an additional rate cut in 2024. This comes as labor market data has deteriorated around the board. It’s clear that unemployment data is quickly becoming the primary driver of Fed policy, along with inflation.”
According to the analysts, today’s jobs report will be the key factor in determining if the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates by 50 bps or 25 bp. The next FOMC meeting takes place from September 17-18, 2024. “If the jobs report is in-line with expectations, or better, we believe a 25 bps rate cut is coming. Interest rate expectations appear to be shifting too dovish again,” The Kobeissi analysts believe.
Notably, the deteriorating labor market scenario was just highlighted by data released earlier in the week. US job openings, as reported by the JOLTs survey, fell to 7.67 million in July from the previous 7.91 million in June, marking the lowest level since January 2021. Analysts had anticipated a figure around 8.09 million, making the actual data a significant miss from expectations.
Since March 2022, job openings have declined by an alarming 4.51 million, or 38%, a reduction that The Kobeissi Letter describes as “MASSIVE.” They added, “The most notable drop was seen in construction openings which fell to 248,000 in July, their lowest since October 2020. Meanwhile, the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed workers fell to 1.07 in July, in line with 2018 levels.”
This backdrop of weakening job data and revised economic forecasts has undoubtedly contributed to the bad sentiment on the Bitcoin market. Hayes seems to expect more bad macro data, which he believes could push the Bitcoin price below $50,000.
Is $46,000 The Bottom?
Adding to the chorus of bearish outlooks, renowned trader Peter Brandt also provided his technical analysis, observing what he terms an “inverted expanding triangle or a megaphone” pattern in Bitcoin’s weekly chart. Brandt highlighted the potential for Bitcoin to test a lower boundary around $46,000, underscoring a dominance of selling pressure over buying interest in the market.
He pointed out, “This is called an inverted expanding triangle or a megaphone. A test of the lower boundary would be to 46,000 or so. A massive thrust into new ATHs is required to get this bull market back on track BTC. Selling is stronger than buying in this pattern.”
At press time, BTC traded at $55,767.