4 February 2026
On-chain analytics firm Checkonchain has pointed out how data could suggest that the latest Bitcoin decline is part of a deeper bear market progression, rather than the final capitulation event.
Bitcoin Has Broken Below Both True Market Mean & Average ETF Cost Basis
In a new post on X, Checkonchain has talked about the recent bearish action in the Bitcoin price. As the below chart shared by the analytics firm shows, this drawdown has taken the cryptocurrency below two key on-chain cost basis levels.
The first level that Bitcoin dropped under was the ETF Cost Basis, corresponding to the average inflow price of the US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Before this, the asset had stayed above the line since the second half of 2024. A close call came in the last quarter of 2025, but the level had ended up acting as a support cushion.
This time around, however, the price went straight through the line. After the ETF Cost Basis was broken, the next level Bitcoin lost was the True Market Mean, a metric tracking the average buying price of the economically active BTC supply. Thus, the break also sent the majority of the asset’s active investors into a state of net unrealized loss for the first time since 2023.
While the price drawdown so far has clearly induced a lot of market pain, it may not be enough yet, as Checkonchain has noted, “the underlying data suggests this is progression deeper into the bear, not the final capitulation event.”
The analytics firm has listed a few metrics pointing to this. First, the spot ETFs have faced negative netflows recently, but while the outflows have been sizeable, they have still lacked the character associated with the panic exodus witnessed at the end of a cycle.
Likewise, on-chain losses have observed an increase as the market crash has occurred, but they also haven’t yet reached a level that may be considered to be a reflection of a true capitulation event.
Finally, futures market data suggests traders have still been trying to catch the bottom. Checkonchain has described these conditions as “a regime where durable lows rarely form.”
This speculation from futures traders has been resulting in mass liquidations on the various exchanges. During the past day alone, long Bitcoin bets worth $50 million have been liquidated as the price has seen a swing from around $79,000 to levels under $76,500, according to data from CoinGlass.
In total, the cryptocurrency market as a whole has witnessed the flush of $185 million in long positions inside this window.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $76,100, down nearly 14% over the last week.