12 October 2024
Peter Brandt, a well-known veteran in the trading community, recently took to X to share a concerning outlook on Bitcoin price trajectory.
Brandt’s warning comes amid a relatively stagnant performance by the leading crypto, failing to produce any decisive moves toward new all-time highs in recent months. Brand pointed out a historical pattern that could signal a 75% drop for Bitcoin.
Reason Why A 75% Plunge Could Be Looming
In his post, Peter Brandt pointed out that Bitcoin has been moving sideways for 30 weeks since its last all-time high (ATH). He referenced historical patterns, explaining that when Bitcoin fails to make a new ATH within this time frame, it typically experiences a decline of over 75%.
Brandt emphasized the importance of Bitcoin breaking out soon, suggesting that a significant drop might follow if it doesn’t. He also mentioned that markets that don’t show upward momentum often struggle to do so.
Hey Bitcoiners
Are you familiar with the concept of “market analogs?”
Here is something to think about
It has been 30 weeks since $BTC made an ATH
Whenever has not made a decisive new ATH within this time length a 75%+ decline has occurred pic.twitter.com/CUyK4C2W93
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) October 11, 2024
However, he made it clear that this was an observation based on historical data rather than a prediction or personal opinion, noting:
I am always amused by people who confuse a market observation with a market opinion. Drivers who cannot turn their heads in both directions always end up in an accident.
Bitcoin Performance And Fundamental Analysis
Despite Brandt’s cautionary note, Bitcoin has regained ground after briefly dipping below $60,000. Today, Bitcoin is trading at $62,172, up 2.8% in the past 24 hours after touching a low of $58,982 yesterday.
While some traders remain hopeful that Bitcoin will continue its upward trajectory, others are growing concerned about potential volatility, especially given the historical patterns that Brandt has outlined.
Data from the CryptoQuant platform further supports the notion of potential downside pressure. According to a recent analysis, BTC’s “Coinbase Premium Gap” has reached its lowest level since August, signaling a wave of selling activity.
The Coinbase Premium Gap measures the difference between Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase (a US-based exchange) and other global exchanges.
A positive premium typically indicates strong buying pressure from US investors, while a negative premium can reflect waning demand. The current negative premium could suggest that institutional interest in Bitcoin is declining, adding weight to Brandt’s observation that Bitcoin might be on the brink of a major correction.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView