8 October 2024
The Bitcoin price started out the month of October on a rather bearish note with a notable 10% drop in price from $66,000 back down to $60,000. This put a damper on the “Uptober” sentiment as selling pressure mounted. However, the weekend turned out to be bullish for the Bitcoin price and the pioneer cryptocurrency has moved into the green once again. This is good news for the price not just in the short term, but in the long term as well.
Has BTC Marked Its October Bottom?
Crypto trade @0xjaypeg on X has taken to the social media platform to explain the movement of the Bitcoin price in the month of October. According to his analysis, the initial decline suffered by the Bitcoin price at the start of the month was not necessarily bad. This is because BTC has historically made a low in the first few days of October.
Jay explains that on average, the BTC price usually takes 3-4 days to bottom this month, especially with months of positive return. The most recent Bitcoin recovery seems to be following this trend as the price stabilized toward the 6th day of the month.
Taking this into account, it could mean that the month has turned bullish for the cryptocurrency once again. If this is the case, then the Bitcoin price could be looking at an average +31.72% return this month. In the case of a positive October return, the trader outlines a possible 36.62% return.
The implication of such high returns is that the Bitcoin price could be reaching a new all-time high if it does play out as expected. A 30% increase from the current price level would send the BTC price toward $80,000, or higher if the bulls maintain control.
However, on the flip side of this, while the month of October has been historically bullish for the Bitcoin price, there are times when the month has ended in the red. Jay forecasts an average drawdown of -8.10%, or a -6.37% return if October moves positive.
What Bitcoin Price Turning Green Means
The Bitcoin price turning green once again is bullish for the price, especially if the month ends in the green. More often than not, months when October have ended in the green have seen the last two months of the year follow suit, data from Coinglass shows.
Over the last 13 years, five years total have ended Q4 with Bitcoin price rallies and each one began with October finishing strong. If this trend repeats here as October turns green once again, it is a good omen that November and December will likely end in the green as well.