12 September 2024
A recent report by Bloomberg highlights that the difficulty of mining Bitcoin has surged to a record high, reflecting increasing competition among cryptocurrency miners.
On Wednesday, mining difficulty rose by 3.5%, as reported by crypto-mining tracker CoinWarz. This metric, which has been climbing steadily, often aligns with market expectations for Bitcoin’s price movements.
Post-Halving Challenges
Following the April Halving, which reduced miners’ potential revenue by half, the Bitcoin price has dropped approximately 10% to a current trading price of $57,000.
Per the report, this reduction has significantly pressured the profit margins of many mining companies, particularly those operating at higher costs. Christopher Bendiksen, Bitcoin research lead at CoinShares, noted:
The effect of the all-time high in difficulty, right on the back of the Halving, is making the outlook extremely challenging for many miners—especially those at the higher end of the cost curve. The researcher added that if current trends persist, some miners may struggle to remain cash flow positive, let alone achieve profitability.
Miners play a crucial role in the Bitcoin ecosystem by using specialized computers to validate transaction data on the blockchain, thereby securing the network. In return for their efforts, they earn Bitcoin rewards.
However, the financial landscape for miners has been tough this year; shares of major publicly traded mining companies have plummeted, with Marathon Digital Inc. and Riot Platforms Inc. experiencing declines of 31% and 54%, respectively.
In contrast, Bitcoin’s price has shown consistency despite current challenges, climbing 38% and reaching a record high of $73,798 in March, fueled by optimism surrounding the demand for US exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that hold BTC.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s hash rate—the total computing power supporting the network—hit an all-time high in September, indicating strong participation in mining activities.
Crucial Months Ahead For The Bitcoin Market
Historically, the Bitcoin price has often dipped following its Halving event, only to rebound several months later, eventually hitting new record highs. Many industry participants are anticipating a potential rally in the fourth quarter, with Bobby Zagotta, CEO of crypto exchange Bitstamp USA, expressing optimism about market movements.
However, Bendiksen cautioned that many miners appear to be banking on a significant price increase in Bitcoin. “If that fails to materialize, there will be trouble ahead for some operators,” he warned.
The coming months will be crucial in determining the sustainability of mining operations and the broader health of the market, with expectations for further price recoveries increasing in the latter part of the year, with other potential catalysts including easing macroeconomic conditions and the outcome of the US election.
As of now, the largest cryptocurrency on the market is down a slight 0.4% in the 24-hour time frame, and nearly 2% in the last seven days, showing BTC’s struggle to regain previously lost levels.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com