10 September 2024
The Bitcoin market has seen some consolidation since Monday, maintaining a price above the $56,000 mark after a brief drop from $65,000 to around $52,600 last Friday.
However, one analyst suggests that the bearish sentiment may still be ongoing, with expectations of a potential revisit to lower levels before a significant upward movement.
BTC’s Future Price Action In Focus
Crypto analysts known as “VirtualBacon” on X (formerly Twitter) have raised concerns about an impending “huge Bitcoin shakeout.” In the coming 2-3 weeks, the analyst explains that Bitcoin could experience one last decline before initiating a bull run.
“Panic is everywhere—people are calling for lows in the $40,000s, claiming the bull run is over,” VirtualBacon noted. Yet, he argues that whether Bitcoin dips to $45,000, $48,000, or even $43,000, a bull run remains on the horizon. This period often sees a shakeout of many holders right before significant rallies.
While the current charts indicate lower highs and lower lows, suggesting a downtrend, VirtualBacon believes that a prolonged bear market appears unlikely.
The primary driver of this sentiment is the anticipated liquidity injection and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, conditions that typically favor a bull run, particularly looking ahead to 2025.
Another crucial aspect of VirtualBacon’s analysis lies in Bitcoin’s key support level—the 100-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This level has historically marked the end of bear markets, with Bitcoin bouncing off similar levels in 2015 and 2019.
Currently, this support level sits around $45,000, with various technical indicators, including Fibonacci retracements and high-volume nodes, suggesting strong support in the $43,000 to $49,000 range.
Even if Bitcoin does dip into this range, the analyst believes it would likely be a temporary “wick” rather than a sustained drop. VirtualBacon also highlights that some traders speculate about around $50,000 to $51,000.
However, this could be risky; a touch at these levels might trigger a cascading liquidation event that could push prices to $44,000.
How Upcoming Fed Decisions May Fuel Bitcoin Bullish Momentum
Historically, September has been a weaker month for Bitcoin. However, the upcoming months—October, November, and December—tend to show more bullish trends. VirtualBacon notes that over the last decade, eight out of ten Octobers have ended positively for Bitcoin, with November also historically strong.
The backdrop of this market analysis coincides with the Federal Reserve’s upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where the analyst predicts a 70% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 30% chance of a double cut.
VirtualBacon notes that this could initiate a 12-month liquidity injection cycle that typically boosts risk assets like BTC and propels the leading cryptocurrency above current all-time high levels of $73,700.
Despite the prevailing fear in the market, as the Fear and Greed Index indicates, the analyst argues that this fear may be irrational, especially with the impending monetary policy shifts. As the Fed begins to cut rates, sentiment is expected to shift rapidly, potentially leading to renewed interest and investment in Bitcoin.
BTC trades at $56,930 when writing, recording a slightly 0.7% gain in the last 24 hours.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com