3 September 2024
Amid ongoing volatility for the Bitcoin price, which has struggled to reclaim its all-time high of $73,700, bullish predictions continue to emerge for the leading cryptocurrency. The latest forecast comes from VanEck, asset manager and Bitcoin ETF issuer with over $100 billion in assets under management.
Bitcoin Price Projection
In a recent update, VanEck projected that by 2050, the Bitcoin price could solidify its position as a key international medium of exchange, potentially becoming one of the world’s reserve currencies. This assertion is rooted in the anticipated decline in trust in current reserve assets, prompting a shift toward more stable alternatives like Bitcoin.
One of the primary barriers to Bitcoin’s widespread adoption has been its scalability issues. However, VanEck anticipates that these challenges will be addressed through the development of Layer-2 (L2) solutions, which enhance Bitcoin’s functionality and efficiency.
By combining Bitcoin’s immutable property rights with the advanced features of L2 solutions, VanEck envisions a global financial system better equipped to meet the needs of the developing world.
With this in mind, the firm believes that by 2050, Bitcoin could be used to settle 10% of international trade and 5% of domestic transactions, leading to central banks potentially holding 2.5% of their assets in BTC.
Based on projections of global economic growth, BTC demand and turnover, VanEck estimates a potential price of $2.9 million per Bitcoin, which translates to a total market capitalization of approximately $61 trillion.
This forecast incorporates assumptions about the global trade landscape, with trade growth expected to lag behind overall Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth—projected at 2% versus 3%.
Moreover, VanEck anticipates a market share decline for traditional currencies, such as the US dollar and the Euro, due to deteriorating economic fundamentals, which would allow Bitcoin and other emerging currencies to gain traction.
Store Of Value Potential
From a medium-of-exchange perspective, VanEck suggests that Bitcoin could capture 10% of cross-border payments and 5% of domestic trade. The firm also highlights that as Bitcoin becomes increasingly recognized as a store of value, approximately 85% of the circulating supply may be effectively removed from the market, further driving its value.
The analysis reflects a broader trend of the Bitcoin price correlation with traditional risk assets, suggesting that its movements will remain closely linked to macroeconomic conditions.
As the global economy evolves, VanEck predicts that Bitcoin will become an essential component of the International Monetary System, gaining market share from existing reserve currencies.
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price stands at $59,140, up 3% in the last few hours after rebounding from a drop towards $57,000 on Monday.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com