1 August 2024
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Bitwise, claims in a new memo to investors following the 2024 Bitcoin Conference that the market may not be bullish enough about the future of BTC. The conference was a watershed moment that attracted massive political attention and could influence the future trajectory of Bitcoin heavily.
Why You Are Not Bullish Enough On Bitcoin
The conference featured a number of groundbreaking statements from high-profile political figures. First and foremost, GOP’s presidential candidate Donald Trump’s statement about building a national Bitcoin reserve caused huge waves. Trump articulated a vision of America as the “crypto capital of the world” and proposed the establishment of a “strategic Bitcoin stockpile”.
Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) presented a bill that would require the US Treasury Department to procure 1 million Bitcoin. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) called on the Democratic Party to move away from previous restrictive policies and embrace cryptocurrencies as an integral part of the US financial system.
In an even more ambitious call, independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suggested that the US Treasury should acquire 4 million Bitcoin. This figure is intended to be equivalent to the US’s share of the world’s gold reserves.
According to Hougan, the political discourse surrounding Bitcoin has rapidly evolved from skepticism to strategic acceptance, a transformation punctuated by recent crises and regulatory challenges. The collapse of FTX in late 2022, which marked one of the most significant upheavals in crypto history, casted a long shadow over the industry.
However, as Hougan noted, the resilience of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market has been remarkable. “This is crazy. Less than two years ago, FTX was collapsing in a historic fraud, bitcoin was trading at $17,000, and skeptics were dancing on crypto’s grave. Now politicians are openly talking about building a ‘Bitcoin Fort Knox,’ Hougan writes.
He further points out that less than a year after the SEC’s aggressive action against Coinbase, the US Department of Justice is now cooperating with the same platform to secure its crypto operations, reflecting a broader recalibration of governmental attitudes towards Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
Hougan suggests that these developments are not merely opportunistic but reflect a deeper recognition of cryptocurrencies’ growing influence in American society. “When you say ‘opportunism,’ I say, ‘That’s how politics works,’” Hougan stated, acknowledging the strategic shifts within the US political sphere.
The implications for investors, according to Hougan, are profound. Investors need to reassess the potential scale of Bitcoin’s growth. Hougan highlighted the asymmetry in risk perceptions, where the focus has traditionally been on downside possibilities. “We spend a lot of time focused on downside risk […] However, there is now an equal risk to the upside,” he stated.
The sentiment on Wall Street is also seeing a notable shift. In a conversation reported from the conference, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon referred to Bitcoin as a potential store of value, indicating growing interest from major financial institutions.
The Bitwise CIO mused, “Could we wake up tomorrow and find out that a G20 country has added bitcoin to its balance sheet, looking to front-run the US? Could comprehensive crypto legislation get passed more quickly than expected in the US as bipartisan support strengthens? Could Wall Street massively embrace crypto, at a scale much larger than most expect? “
Overall, the 2024 Bitcoin Conference has evidently served as a catalyst for rethinking Bitcoin’s role on both national and global stages. “These ideas would have been the stuff of daydreams a year ago. But after what I witnessed last week, they look more likely than not,” Hougan concluded.
At press time, BTC traded at $64,136.