10 July 2024
Bitcoin is preparing itself for a substantial bull run in the years ahead. One of the latest price trend models predicts significant gains by late 2025 from an analysis rooted in ‘power law,’ a statistical method that has historically proven to be a solid support band for Bitcoin’s value.
Revisiting the theory, an engineer named Apsk32 on X has shared an update on Bitcoin price action. Based on his analysis, despite a notable 25% price drop from March’s peak, the potential for a substantial rally looms, anticipating up to 300% gains by the end of 2025.
The optimism is built on the fact that cycle patterning has been a theme in Bitcoin’s past, indicating that we are just months away from a forming and observable move higher.
Examining the Predictive Power of the Power-law
The power law isn’t just a mathematical abstraction; it’s a practical tool that reliably indicates where Bitcoin’s price might find its footing. According to Apsk32, this metric provides a lower support band that has held strong since Bitcoin’s early days when it was valued merely at a dollar.
The same model forecasts a rise to $1 million by 2036, assuming the trend continues. Further analysis by Apsk32 shows that Bitcoin’s journey follows a four-year cycle, a pattern that has seen it rebound from periodic lows to new highs.
This cycle is currently in a phase that typically precedes significant growth, as detailed in Apsk32’s analysis. The application of this model today considers various market factors, including recent regulatory changes and shifts in investment strategies, such as the arrival of ETFs.
These elements have recently nudged Bitcoin’s price out of its typical range, but if history is any guide, a correction toward growth is likely on the horizon, according to Apsk32. The engineer referred to the Power Law Fractal Cloud, a conceptual tool that predicts price movements within specific bands.
The ETFs pushed us out of the cloud and now we’re reverting back. We’re 3+ months away from upwards acceleration and we could see prices go up 4x by the end of 2025.
Bitcoin Market Performance
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has managed to reclaim its $57k mark and is now stabilizing above it. This follows the asset’s notable drop from last week, which brought the asset to trade as low as $53k on Friday following the German government selling some BTC holdings worth millions of dollars.
Bitcoin trades for $57,646 at the time of writing, up by 2.6% in the past 24 hours. Samson Mow, the former Chief Strategy Officer at Blockstream and CEO of Jan3 – a Bitcoin-centric company, has recently expressed his faith concerning the demand for Bitcoin, which would not succumb to heavy market sell-offs.
Mow added that while the big players are selling — the German government and Mt. Gox transactions–their sales have been absorbed by the market with consistently strong Bitcoin demand support thus far.
The market is absorbing all #Bitcoin sales nicely. Demand is strong.
— Samson Mow (@Excellion) July 9, 2024
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView