9 July 2024
Recent developments surrounding the repayment of creditors and investors of the defunct Bitcoin (BTC) exchange, Mt. Gox, have sparked concerns about potential effects on Bitcoin’s price.
As the market retraced over 20% from its three-month high above $70,000, the movement of 47,000 BTC to repay creditors has raised questions about the market’s stability.
However, industry experts, including CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju and Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, have offered insights into this development, suggesting that the impact on BTC’s price may be less significant than initially feared.
Internal Transfers, OTC, And Brokerage Services Examined
Ki Young Ju, in an analysis shared on social media, outlined three possible scenarios for the BTC transactions related to creditor repayment. Firstly, an internal transfer could have taken place to increase security by changing wallets. Secondly, an over-the-counter (OTC) deal may have been executed specifically not to impact the market price.
In a third scenario, a brokerage service may have been used, possibly involving the sale of the BTC after it bypassed broker wallets and exchanges.
Ju mentioned that 1.5K BTC went to Bitbank, Japan’s largest crypto exchange. Still, no significant increase in trading volume was observed, indicating that it may not significantly impact the market. According to Ju’s analysis:
If scenario 3 applies, 94K BTC is available for sell-side liquidity, but selling this much BTC without on-chain movement is unlikely. If it’s OTC selling, we’re in the clear.
Holding Bitcoin Over USD Payouts?
Alex Thorn of Galaxy Digital offered additional insight into the Mt. Gox creditor dynamics and their potential impact on the market, noting that fewer coins may be distributed than originally anticipated, which could result in less selling pressure on Bitcoin than the market expects.
Thorn noted that the majority of creditors are long-term Bitcoin enthusiasts with a “deep understanding” of the technology, for which he believes their desire to reclaim their coins rather than accept a USD-denominated payout indicates a strong preference for holding onto their Bitcoin, which would not contribute to an expected sell-off.
In addition, Thorn explained that the significant capital gains implications of selling BTC may discourage creditors from liquidating their holdings.
Despite the relatively low recovery rate, Thorn believes the 140x appreciation since bankruptcy offers significant value to creditors who may choose to hold on to their coins and expect further price appreciation.
At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency in the market is being traded at $56,300. This reflects a decrease of over 1.5% within the past 24 hours and a decline of nearly 20% over the month.
Ultimately, it remains to be seen how the Mt. Gox drama will unfold and how it will or will not affect the Bitcoin price after more than 10 years of waiting for creditors to receive their payments.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com