4 July 2024
As the global financial markets prepare to launch U.S.-based spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Ethereum is positioned to potentially outperform Bitcoin, according to a new analysis by K33 Research.
This comes amid concerns that Bitcoin might face downward pressure due to upcoming repayments to creditors of the defunct Mt. Gox exchange.
ETF Launch to Begin a New Era for Ethereum
Ethereum has lagged behind Bitcoin in performance over the last year, with the former surging 67% while the latter by 95%, but that might be about to change with the anticipated launch of Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, expected in the coming weeks.
Analysts Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman from K33 Research suggest that introducing these spot ETFs could be pivotal for Ethereum’s valuation.
Despite a likely initial dip post-launch, they forecast that inflows into these funds will propel Ethereum’s price over time, drawing a parallel to the earlier impact of Bitcoin’s spot ETFs, which attracted billions of dollars in inflow after launch.
This optimism is rooted in the belief that ETFs will catalyze significant capital flows into Ethereum, mirroring the influx seen with Bitcoin.
The analysts project net inflows amounting to 0.75% to 1% of Ethereum’s circulating supply within five months post-launch, potentially setting the stage for substantial price appreciation. The analysts noted:
ETFs are a solid catalyst for relative ETH strength as the summer progresses and flows accumulate, and I firmly view current ETH/BTC prices as a bargain for the patient trader.
When Will ETH Spot ETF Launch In The US?
Despite the analysts’ bullish outlook, the market appears skeptical, as evidenced by Ethereum futures trading at a discount relative to Bitcoin futures, as highlighted in the K33 Research.
Ethereum is trading at around $3,312, reflecting a 3.3% drop over the past day and conceding with the ubiquitous decline in the crypto market.
In the broader context, the crypto industry is enthusiastic about Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, highlighted that amended S-1 forms for Bitcoin ETFs are due before July 8, with approvals potentially finalized by July 12, paving the way for a mid-July launch.
Wen spot eth ETF?
BBG sticking w/ mid-July.
Amended S-1s due July 8th.
Potential final S-1s by July 12th.
Would theoretically mean launch week of July 15th.
via @emily_graffeo @olgakharif pic.twitter.com/NG8xhtCP21
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) July 3, 2024
Concurrently, Steve Kurz from Galaxy Digital expressed confidence in a Bloomberg interview that Ethereum ETFs would receive approval within July, underscoring the structured and familiar regulatory process drawing from experiences with Bitcoin ETF applications.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView