29 April 2024
The Bitcoin price movement in the past few days after the halving event has left many investors wanting. Particularly, price data shows the crypto failed to settle above $65,000 las week. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $62,105, down by 2.96% and 6.14% in the past 24 hours and seven days, respectively.
According to a CryptoQuant analyst, Bitcoin’s Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) is still looking bullish, which could be a faint signal of the crypto’s price reversing into bullish momentum.
Current State Of Bitcoin
As it stands, the price of Bitcoin might be on the way to registering a new monthly low with the risks of more downside below $62,000. A recent analysis during the weekend by Phi Deltalytics, an analyst at CryptoQuant, noted that Bitcoin’s price trajectory is showing indecisiveness in the short term. His analysis is based upon the SOPR ratio, one of the lesser-known but highly useful metrics for analyzing Bitcoin.
SOPR measures the profit ratio of spent outputs, which are groups of transactions representing the movement of coins. Phi’s analysis revealed an interesting indecisiveness with this metric. According to this metric, Bitcoin’s short-term Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has entered into a zone of indecisiveness, correlating with the current market sentiment. However, the analyst also noted that the adjusted SOPR continues to move in a bullish direction, a confluence that warrants careful planning when entering the market.
What Does This Mean for Bitcoin?
This discrepancy with the SOPR and its adjusted ratio means many short-term holders are now trading Bitcoin at a loss. Interestingly, another CryptoQuant analysis seems to support this idea. Specifically, the long-term SOPR to short-term SOPR ratio is moving in favor of long-term holders, suggesting that long-term holders are realizing greater profits in contrast to short-term holders. Hence, there is persistence of bullish momentum with the adjusted SOPR.
A better interpretation of this SOPR ratio is that the price of Bitcoin has not been favorable for short-term holders at the current market conditions. Furthermore, it suggests that the stalling of the upward momentum can be attributed to some long-term holders cashing out their holdings.
According to Phi Deltalytics, a reversal of the adjusted SOPR into a bearish signal would finally imply the possibility of a rapid downward shift in the price of Bitcoin.
“The persistence of a bullish aSOPR amidst wavering short-term SOPR trends gives rise to the possibility of a rapid downward shift once the aSOPR trajectory reverses,” the analyst mentioned.
When Will The Correction End?
Bitcoin’s price has been ranging between $60,000 to $70,000 since it reached a new all-time high. The much-anticipated break above $74,000 now seems to be taking forever, and this lackluster action has prompted some analysts to believe that Bitcoin might have reached its peak in the current market cycle.
However, time can only reveal the crypto’s price trajectory in the coming months, particularly with the recent conclusion of another halving event. If halving history repeats itself, Bitcoin could continue its price surge within the next nine months.