13 March 2024
Cardano (ADA) has notably trailed behind that of its contemporaries in the ongoing crypto bull run. While Bitcoin has surged to record new all-time highs, alongside a suite of other altcoins, ADA remains approximately 77% beneath its peak historical value. However, emerging technical patterns and market dynamics suggest that this trend could be poised for a reversal, with ADA potentially gearing up to narrow the gap.
Cardano Bull Flag Formation: An In-Depth Look
Central to this analysis is the bull flag pattern in the ADA/USD weekly chart. The bull flag pattern observed here is composed of two primary elements: the flagpole and the flag. The flagpole is a significant vertical ascent in price, representing a rapid increase in buying pressure. For ADA, this pole formed from mid-October till mid-December and reflects an approximate 185% surge.
The flag, following the pole, is a period of consolidation with a downward slope, resembling a flag on a pole. For ADA, the pole developed from mid-December to early February. A subsequent breakout above the flag can often lead to a price rally proportionate to the initial pole’s height.
The Cardano price already broke out and surpassed the crucial resistance at $0.685. If ADA further follows this technical playbook, the rally is far from over. The projected target would be an 185% increase from the consolidation zone’s breakout point, placing the price close to the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement level, which is around $1.35.
Remarkably, the Cardano price must first overcome the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.92, an area where greater selling pressure and possibly a shorter consolidation can be expected.
Golden Cross And More Bullish Arguments
The chart also teases the formation of a golden cross, a bullish signal where a shorter-term moving average (the 50-week EMA) crosses above a longer-term average (the 200-week EMA). Such crossovers can often signal a shift in momentum from bearish to bullish over the long term, and their significance is heightened on a weekly chart, which filters out short-term market noise.
Traders often view this crossover as confirmation of a trend reversal, with the potential to catalyze sustained buying activity. For ADA, this could be the final confirmation of a strong bull move.
Beyond that, the weekly chart for ADA presents a broader narrative. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits just above the overbought threshold at 74, which indicates strong buying momentum with more room to the upside.
The volume, though lower than during the peak periods of 2021, is consistent, suggesting a stable interest in ADA trading without the panic sell-offs seen during sharp declines.
Moreover, a series of Exponential Moving Averages (20-week, 50-week, 100-week, and 200-week) provide further context as ADA is trading above all of them. Notably, the 200-week EMA has recently acted as a very strong support for the price, indicative of long-term bullish sentiment.
The 50-week EMA is trending upward, which could solidify support levels in the intermediate term. The 100-week and 200-week EMAs are further below the current price, potentially serving as long-term support levels in case of a price retracement.
In addition, the Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the all-time high to the low of the ADA bear market provide long-term price targets. Following the bull flag conclusion, the 0.5 level at $1.697, marking the halfway point of the previous swing high to low, could serve as a next target for the bulls. Thereafter, the 0.618 Fib at $2.04, the 0.786 Fib at $2.54 and finally the all-time high at $3.17 would be subsequent price targets.
In conclusion, while the bull flag and the impending golden cross are the stars of the show, other factors such as moving averages, RSI, and Fibonacci levels add depth to the bullish narrative for the Cardano price.