27 February 2024
In a statement via X (formerly Twitter), Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise Invest, shared insights from a recent memo to advisors and institutional clients penned by Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer. The memo heralded the onset of a new era for Bitcoin, likening its current trajectory in the financial markets to having an ‘initial public offering’ (IPO) moment, signaling a major shift in price discovery mechanisms for the cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin’s IPO Moment
Hougan’s memo elaborates on the seismic shift within the Bitcoin investment landscape, stating, “Previously, only a fraction of the world’s investors could access Bitcoin—mostly self-directed retail investors and technologists. That group drove the price above $40,000. Now, thanks to the ETFs, every investor in the world—financial advisors, family offices, institutions, endowments, and others—can access Bitcoin.” This transition is likened to “going from 10 normal people bidding on a house to 100 very wealthy people bidding on a house, overnight,” thus naturally propelling the price upward.
Emphasizing the magnitude of this shift, the memo reads, “It’s like bitcoin had its initial public offering and the market is now finding its true price,” underlining the transformative impact of ETFs in democratizing access to Bitcoin for a global pool of investors. With the world’s asset and wealth managers controlling approximately $115 trillion in capital, a modest allocation of 1% to Bitcoin could result in over $1 trillion of buying pressure, a figure that is approximately equal to Bitcoin’s current market capitalization.
The memo also draws attention to the pivotal role of long-term Bitcoin holders in this new era of price discovery. With Bitcoin ETFs acquiring more than the total new supply generated by miners, the decision of these long-term holders to sell or hold could significantly influence market dynamics. Hougan notes, “Close to 70% of all bitcoin hasn’t moved in a year,” suggesting a robust holding pattern among investors which could set the stage for price escalations as demand continues to surge.
Further reinforcing Bitwise’s bullish outlook, Ryan Rasmussen, a researcher at the firm, provided a tangible price target during a Yahoo Finance interview. He affirmed, “We think that Bitcoin will certainly set all-time highs in 2024…We still stand by that prediction. […] That previous price is around $69,000, but we think it won’t stop there, we will see at least a 10-15% bump over the all-time high […] That would take us to […] $88,000, and I am still sticking by that with all the excitement in the market.”
“Ultimately what we’re seeing is crypto kind of rising from the ashes of the 2022 market,” Bitwise’s @RasterlyRock says on the crypto rally. “We think that we’re in a multi-year bull cycle and all elements of the crypto space will certainly have their moment.” pic.twitter.com/Fj1ohKUwjS
— Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) February 26, 2024
These projections and analyses from Bitwise’s leadership highlight a consensus view of Bitcoin entering a groundbreaking phase of price discovery. The narrative of Bitcoin’s ‘IPO moment’, coupled with expanded investor access through ETFs and the steadfastness of long-term holders, crafts a compelling forecast of growth and new price benchmarks for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.
At press time, BTC traded at $