5 October 2023
In an interview with Tom Bilyeu, Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, shared an insightful analysis of the future dynamics he believes will shape the Bitcoin price. At the heart of Hayes’ argument is a complex interplay of global financial mechanisms.
Bitcoin Price May Reach $750,000
Hayes began by setting the stage for Bitcoin’s near-term movement, stating, “My working model is that we are going to continue chopping around $25,000 to $30,000 this year.” This forecast draws its foundation from the anticipation of impending financial disturbances and Hayes alluded to the consequences of negative real rates.
When nominal rates, driven by government policies, hover between 6% to 10%, he expects a wave of diversification in investment strategies. Cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, stand to gain significantly from such a shift. “As we get to some kind of financial disturbance and people realize that real rates are negative, if governments are growing nominal at 10%, 5%, 6%, though it’s high, people at the market will start buying other stuff. Crypto is one of those things,” Hayes remarked.
Delving deeper into the dynamics, Hayes extrapolated his prediction into 2024. He mentioned, “Either we face a financial crisis where rates plummet to zero, or we experience a slower increase in rates compared to government expenditure.” In both scenarios, Hayes anticipates a bullish outcome for Bitcoin, seeing it touch around the $70,000 mark by the end of 2024.
Key drivers, in his opinion, would be the Bitcoin halving event, an algorithmic reduction in Bitcoin rewards that traditionally impacts its price, and potential Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) launches by significant asset management giants in strategic global financial hubs, including the US, Europe, China (through Hong Kong).
The longer-term prediction, however, is where Hayes’ vision becomes even more expansive. He articulated, “This is where the real fun starts. In my mental model we can go somewhere between $750,000 to $1,000,000 per Bitcoin in the 2026 timeframe. Whatever the number is, it’s going to be a round number, just like Bitcoin hit $69,999. Then it is going down and gets crashed. 75% or 80%, it doesn’t matter.”
Hayes firmly believes that such an evolution will come amidst an unparalleled financial boom. Moreover, Hayes’ analysis is not confined to Bitcoin. Drawing parallels, he suggests that this monumental financial growth will cascade across other major assets. Indicators such as the NASDAQ and S&P, he suggests, will also see record-shattering performances.
“I think it will be the biggest boom in financial markets we have ever seen in human history. Bitcoin will have a ridiculous price, Nasdaq will have a ridiculous price, S&P will have a ridiculous price. Pick your stock industry. […] Not just in crypto,” Hayes predicts.
Money Printer To Go “Brrrr” Soon?
On a separate note, Hayes expressed his thoughts on the broader macroeconomic climate, specifically pointing toward the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy in a series of tweets on Wednesday. He conveyed a belief that if the Fed were to return to its aggressive money printing strategies, it could become a significant catalyst for Bitcoin’s upward trajectory.
One of Hayes’ core focuses was on an emergent phenomenon in the bond market called the “bear steepener.” This scenario, wherein long-term bond interest rates rise faster than their short-term counterparts, often serves as a bearish indicator for stocks and riskier assets. Hayes, diving into the complexities of this pattern, remarked in one of his tweets, “Why do I love these markets right now when yields are screaming higher? Bank models have no concept of a bear steepener occurring.”
Expanding on potential outcomes of a rapid bear steepener evolution, Hayes highlighted the risks. “The faster this bear steepener rises, the faster someone goes belly up, the faster everyone recognizes there is no way out other than money printing to save government bond markets,” he pointed out, suggesting a potential domino effect that could send Bitcoin, crypto and all financial markets soaring.
At press time, BTC traded at $27,619.