10 July 2024
While the Bitcoin price hasn’t reclaimed the crucial $60,000 level to reenter the previous 4-month trading range, Ikigai Asset Management Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Travis Kling thinks that the current bearish phase is not more than a “boogeyman.” Via X, Kling listed eight reasons to be bullish on Bitcoin. He stated: “NFA. I’m wrong often. The current “bearish” backdrop seems easier to look through and buy than most of the boogeymen we’ve had in these markets over the last 6 years.”
#1 Rapid Bitcoin Liquidations By Germany
Travis Kling observes that Germany has significantly decreased its Bitcoin holdings, from 50,000 BTC to 22,000 BTC in recent weeks. According to him, “Germany is speedrunning their #Bitcoin dump.” He predicts the selling will soon cease, suggesting, “By the time they get down to ~5k, the market will look through it.” Kling implies that the market impact of Germany’s Bitcoin liquidations is temporary and nearing its end.
#2 Mt. Gox’s Overestimated Market Impact
Kling addressed the potential market effects of the Mt. Gox repayments, characterizing the fear of massive sell-offs as more speculative than based on the creditors’ likely actions. He stated, “Gox seems more FUD than actual mass selling (just a guess but feels that way).”
He believes the creditors, many of whom are sophisticated investors, are likely to sell their holdings methodically, e.g. via TWAPs, thus reducing the impact on the market. Regarding the retail investors, Kling asked a rhetorical question, “You’ve hung on for decade when you could have sold ages ago. You’re just going to aggressively dump now, three months after the halving?”
#3 US Government’s Bitcoin Strategy
Regarding the US government’s Bitcoin sales, Kling emphasized the measured approach taken so far. He stated, “But they’ve been pretty measured with selling so far, so I assume they’ll continue to be pretty measured.” While he admits that the US government selling is the “hardest to get your head around in terms of pace/method, and their stack is huge,” he claims that the selling is unlikely to disrupt market stability.
#4 Retail Investment Boost Through ETFs
Kling highlighted a surge in retail investment in Bitcoin, particularly through ETFs, following recent price dips. He remarked, “You have boomers slurping the dipperino in the BTC ETFs Fri and Mon.” This trend indicates strong retail investor interest in capitalizing on lower prices, suggesting a bullish sentiment among this investor segment.
#5 Ethereum ETF Anticipation
With the anticipation of US spot Ethereum ETFs, Kling noted that the price of ETH remains only slightly below its level prior to the emergence of ETF rumors, indicating minimal speculative hype has been priced in. This observation suggests that the market could react positively to the launches.
#6 Interest Rate Cuts Are Near
Kling also discussed the potential for upcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts, noting the market has priced in a significant probability of such an event in September. He stated, “If inflation/labor data is light this month, Powell will likely tell the market that Sept is a live meeting at the 7/31 FOMC. Nickileaks has already teased this.”
The fund manager is referring to Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos who is also known as “mouthpiece of the Fed”. A few days ago, Timiraos wrote via X that the June jobs report will make the July Fed meeting “more interesting” because. “For the first time all year—a real debate over whether to cut at the *next* meeting (in September),” he remarked.
#7 The Potential Trump Pump
Kling speculated on the political landscape’s influence on Bitcoin, particularly under a potential Trump presidency. Kling posed a rhetorical question, “What else would you rather own than crypto going into a Trump presidency?” with regards to the latest pro-Bitcoin and crypto comments by the leading presidential candidate in the polls.
#8 Bitcoin And Nasdaq Re-Coupling
Kling pointed out the disparity between NASDAQ’s continual new all-time highs and Bitcoin’s relative underperformance. He noted, “NASDAQ keeps making new ATH after new ATH. Crypto has completely decoupled to the downside.” He suggests that Bitcoin is undervalued relative to the major market index and soon starts a catch-up rallye. “You could argue BTC is lagging QQQ by 40% YTD,” Kling concluded.
At press time, BTC traded at $59,147.